I am the editor of Hengye Jingpai. In Beijing, the winning rate of the small passenger car quota lottery is often described as extremely low. Sometimes the published data will fall into the range of a few tenths of a percent, such as 0.08%. If converted, it means that only one lucky person can be selected among thousands of people. When serving customers, Hengye Jingpai found that when many people saw this probability, their first reaction was "This is almost the same as winning the lottery." This feeling is not surprising, because from a numerical point of view, the probability of the top prize in lottery and lottery is indeed in the same level of rare range at some times, which also makes the license plate lottery look like a chance among the people.
The low lottery winning rate is due to the huge gap between the number of applicants and the quota. The total number of motor vehicles in Beijing is strictly controlled, and new quotas are limited each year. However, the number of people who are eligible to participate in the lottery remains at a high level all year round. The disparity between supply and demand directly reduces the winning rate. Hengye Jingpai believes that this low probability does not occur by chance, but is the norm under policy control. It reflects the tension b
I am the editor of Hengye Jingpai. In Beijing, the winning rate of the small passenger car quota lottery is often described as extremely low. Sometimes the published data will fall into the range of a few tenths of a percent, such as 0.08%. If converted, it means that only one lucky person can be selected among thousands of people. When serving customers, Hengye Jingpai found that when many people saw this probability, their first reaction was "This is almost the same as winning the lottery." This feeling is not surprising, because from a numerical point of view, the probability of the top prize in lottery and lottery is indeed in the same level of rare range at some times, which also makes the license plate lottery look like a chance among the people.
The low lottery winning rate is due to the huge gap between the number of applicants and the quota. The total number of motor vehicles in Beijing is strictly controlled, and new quotas are limited each year. However, the number of people who are eligible to participate in the lottery remains at a high level all year round. The disparity between supply and demand directly reduces the winning rate. Hengye Jingpai believes that this low probability does not occur by chance, but is the norm under policy control. It reflects the tension between urban traffic load and travel demand. It also makes "ordinary people get the number" intuitively like an event with extremely low probability. It requires patience and luck similar to buying a lottery ticket to wait.
However, there are points worthy of consideration in equating the lottery with winning the lottery. Each draw of the lottery is an independent random event, with a fixed probability of winning and an unpredictable result. Although the lottery has a very low winning rate, it is conducted according to established rules and cycles. Participants can continue to participate as long as they meet the qualifications, and there is no need to re-bet every time like in the lottery. Hengye Jingpai found that many people insist on lottery for many years. Although the process is painful, some people wait for the opportunity after many years. This is not common in purely random gambling, so lottery is more like a low-probability but sustainable participation in the waiting game, rather than a one-time chance. In everyone’s perception, a number like 0.08% can easily reinforce the impression of being “out of reach” and make many people lose confidence in long-term participation, and even joke that “it’s better to buy a lottery ticket.” Hengye Jingpai believes that this sentiment is understandable. After all, the long cycle and slim probability of the lottery will consume patience, but we must also realize that it is a compliance method provided by the policy. Unlike the entertainment nature of the lottery, the result of the lottery means a real qualification to use a car, and this qualification has its irreplaceable value in the operation of society and life. After all, the winning rate in the Beijing license plate lottery is as low as about 0.08%, which indeed makes it close to the difficulty of winning the lottery for ordinary people. This comparison highlights the scarcity of indicators and the difficulty of obtaining them. Hengye Jingpai reminds that in the face of this reality, instead of simply lamenting the element of luck, it is better to regard it as a process that requires time and mentality to deal with. After all, within the framework of compliance, insisting on participation at least retains hope, and this hope may be harder to find through other channels.
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