I was looking at the car sales data for October today, and I felt that there was a lot of information, but upon closer inspection, there were only a few that really interested me. Especially behind the figures of Dongfeng Group, there are actually hidden rules and subtle games in many industries.
You know, Dongfeng Motor’s October report card is very interesting. New car sales were 241,500. Although it was 15.6% more than the same period last year, which sounds pretty impressive, the cumulative total sales were still a little less than last year, almost 3.1% less. This shows that in the first ten months of this year, the overall market was still not very prosperous. Taking this batch of data, it immediately reminded me of the supply chain problem I encountered last year. At that time, the person in charge of the front-line factory suddenly sighed and said that the supplier's parts prices had increased by 10%, and they could hardly bear it and had to work hard to reduce costs.
I was looking at the car sales data for October today, and I felt that there was a lot of information, but upon closer inspection, there were only a few that really interested me. Especially behind the figures of Dongfeng Group, there are actually hidden rules and subtle games in many industries.
You know, Dongfeng Motor’s October report card is very interesting. New car sales were 241,500. Although it was 15.6% more than the same period last year, which sounds pretty impressive, the cumulative total sales were still a little less than last year, almost 3.1% less. This shows that in the first ten months of this year, the overall market was still not very prosperous. Taking this batch of data, it immediately reminded me of the supply chain problem I encountered last year. At that time, the person in charge of the front-line factory suddenly sighed and said that the supplier's parts prices had increased by 10%, and they could hardly bear it and had to work hard to reduce costs.
Speaking of the supply chain, for example, Dongfeng and its joint venture brands: Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan, and Zhengzhou Nissan sold about 96,200 vehicles in total, accounting for less than 40%. These three companies are quite stable, but the total number in the first ten months is less than last year - especially Dongfeng Honda. The declining numbers make me think: among non-local independent brands, the market share is indeed decreasing. Dongfeng Nissan is still relatively stable, with a sneaky 8.3% growth. But you have to know that although Dongfeng Nissan has a great reputation, in fact, the overall channel layout and product updates are already a bit behind the pace.
As for Zhengzhou Nissan, it is still a bright spot, with an increase of 30% in October. I looked through my notes from last year and found that Zhengzhou Nissan has been launching new models in recent years - unlike its brother companies that insist on light luxury, it instead takes a practical and cost-effective route. Part of the reason why I believe in this strategy is that their sales volume is relatively easy to reach the minimum threshold, which means that their cost control is pretty good.
But here comes the problem, the strange thing about joint ventures, especially now with Cyrus. Some people say that Cyrus is quite good, with sales ranking first among independent brands, with 54,400 units; but in fact, Cyrus is more of a financial investment tool. It mainly relies on capital to operate, unlike Lantu, which is obviously a pure brand independently developed by car companies. To put it bluntly, Thalys may not have invested much technology, or even have such in-depth management and management, and it is more money-consuming. Would you say it's embarrassing? I'm actually quite confused. Can Cyrus be considered Dongfeng's own brand? Or to be more precise, is it just a name for financial investment in the Dongfeng Department? This depends on subsequent actions.
Let’s talk about the comparison between Sailis and Lantu. Lantu sales actually reached 17,200 units in October, an increase of 120% over the same period last year! This growth rate is too scary, especially on the high-end new energy track. Lantu is actually trying its best to catch up. Dongfeng's own brand is the leader in October, especially Lantu, which has begun to move more and more high-end, with an obvious goal: to occupy a higher-end market share. I think they also started to catch up after seeing the changes in the market.
Dongfeng Yipai’s performance was also quite strong. The monthly growth rate of 55% is astonishing, but you cannot ignore that if a brand can explode, there must be resources behind it. Its sales volume in the first ten months was more than 220,000, which is considered a steady growth and looks like a potential stock. I also deliberately looked through its promotion plan that day, and I felt that there were many labels for young self-expression, and it seemed to be competing for the young people's market.
I have to digress here. The word "Lantu" sounds quite high-end. You know, Lantu once reminded me that I asked the workers next to the factory: What do you think of this new model? He pondered for a while and said: It's not bad, it feels more mature than the previous car. In fact, this sentence is very true, that is, as the car gets older, it starts to change and the market is changing. Lantu seems to be doing well in this regard, but I'm still wondering - can its sales really continue to rise? Or is it just hot for a while?
Dongfeng Liuqi, commercial vehicles, and other brands, such as Shenlong and Mengshi Technology, although their respective performances are very different, they actually don't have much impact together - but I always feel that a steady stream of water is the last word. Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, for example, sold more than 10,000 units in October. It may still develop in the future, but it has been tepid in recent years.
Many people focus on vehicle sales figures, but forget the hidden games: channels, supply chains, and even invisible parts like relationships. For example, a friend of mine who works in logistics said: Regardless of sales volume, once the vehicle reaches the channel and reaches the user, it will be very stuck. Nowadays, many car brands are striving for channel efficiency. In fact, it is not entirely a question of whether the cars are good or not. If you think about it, the cost of a car per 100 kilometers may be higher than you think, especially the last mile from the factory to the user.
I'm still thinking about how this market will go in the future. Those joint venture brands are struggling, and those independent brands are breaking through. Who can persist? Especially with new energy and intelligent two-wheel drive, this situation may become more complicated. For example, should Lantu consider developing a mid-range product line to maintain growth? Or should we continue to use capital to support it like Thalys did, or should we return to technology? What do you think? Will we one day see Thalys become a capital holding name and have nothing to do with Dongfeng itself, leaving only a mark?
(Click this paragraph for now) I just flipped through my notes and saw a piece of content - it turns out that a company is saying that new car sales do not represent market share. This sentence made me think deeply. Is it because, although the short-term numbers are beautiful, the reality depends on the channel proportion, residual equity (an estimate, it may still be small, not sure) and user value retention rate. Preserving value is actually very important. I roughly calculated that a basic car costs about 100,000 yuan. Five years later, the valuation will probably be only one-third. This is a flaw.
In fact, I personally am also annoyed by those hot data, which always talk about market expansion and brand rise. You know, for many cars, in actual use, in addition to their appearance, daily maintenance, maintenance, and repairs are more and more difficult every year. A repairman complained to me: "You said that the battery pack of this car is broken, and the cost of replacing it is higher than the price of the car. It is simply buying a new one and not repairing the old one." 'But that's life, what else can you do? Except carry.
We can also look forward to whether car companies can become more down-to-earth in the future. I have always felt that it would be more reliable if we could pay more attention to user experience and show off less numbers. I am always worried that this industry has actually reached a bottleneck, and many traditional ways of playing are coming to an end, waiting for new breakthroughs.
Alas, it seems to have gone far again. Finally, I would like to ask, which market segment do you think is most likely to explode next? Or should we wait and see whether Lantu and even higher-end independent brands can sustain themselves? Or, can Cyrus escape from the shadow of capital and develop some real technology? I feel like these are the more interesting things.
(This paragraph is left in suspense, maybe someone can guess what it is.)
This work is an original creation by the author, and the content was completed manually. Some of the content was generated with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) tools during the creation process. AI provides support in data collection, language polishing, expression optimization, or inspiration expansion. The core ideas and main content are completed independently by the author.
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