Friends, have you been flooded with the four words "solid-state battery" recently?
The Tsinghua University laboratory has made a big news. The energy density is directly 600Wh/kg, and it can be easily pricked and burned, highlighting stability.
Immediately afterwards, bigwigs such as Ningde, Guoxuan, and BYD also said that we are on the road to mass production, so everyone should be at ease.
For a moment, the entire public opinion field had a climax, as if we could drive a super tram with a charging five minutes and a range of 2,000 kilometers tomorrow.
But at the same time, another voice also emerged, especially in the group of tens of millions of new energy vehicle owners, the atmosphere was quite subtle.
"I just picked up a car for half a year, why is it almost becoming industrial garbage?"
"With my smart electric daddy, I'm about to become Nokia?"
"The sales bragged at the beginning, but now it's all the slap in the face in the reverse face?"
This feeling is like you just bought the latest iPhone with all your money. As a result, Apple's press conference the next day said that our next generation will use brain-computer interfaces directly, and physical machines are all transitional products.
Do you think you are angry?
Don’t rush to curse, and don’t rush to use a used car platform to estimate the price.
A good financial article is to strip away complex problems and show you it, and then kick it twice.
Today, let’s dig the so-called “solid-state battery revolution” into the sky.
First of all, we need to clarify a core question: Why do car companies and battery factories fight solid-state batteries just like crazy?
Is it because they have the world in mind and want everyone to use more awesome products as soon as possible?
Stop being naive.
The first principle of the business world is that if you don’t do this, you will really die.
The current liquid lithium batteries, whether they are lithium iron phosphate or ternary lithium, have already been rolled to the ceiling.
This is like a Lanzhou ramen restaurant that has been open for decades. No matter how superb the master's noodles are, it cannot become a French feast.
The upper limit of energy density is there, and the range of 700 kilometers is already the limit that everyone can optimize.
What’s even more terrible is that when technology does not have generation gaps, what is the only way to compete in the market?
It's a price war.
You reduced 8,000 yuan, I reduced 15,000 yuan, and he directly broke the bone and gave him a full set of foot pads.
Everyone is fighting for food in the same pot, and the final result is that no one can eat enough. The profit is thinner than paper, and selling a car is the same as doing charity.
Who can stand this?
So the slutty operation came.
A new story must be created, a new story that can open up your position, reshape the pattern, and make consumers willing to pay more.
Solid-state batteries are this perfect "new story".
The range is 1,000 kilometers.
Safe and never catch fire.
It only takes a few minutes to charge.
Doesn't it sound beautiful?
What is the price?
The price is that you can't afford it.
Let's do some calculations, this account is cruel, but it's very real.
According to industry data, the cost of solid-state batteries is about 5,700 yuan per kilowatt-hour.
What concept?
The cost of a 100-kWh electric car is 600,000 yuan.
Even if the technology progresses rapidly, according to Xinwangda's optimistic statement, the cost will be reduced to 2,000 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2026.
The cost of the 100-kWh battery pack is still as high as 200,000.
Note that this is just the battery money.
Coupled with the car shells, motors, intelligent systems, messy taxes and profits from car companies, how much do you think this car will cost?
400,000? 500,000?
This price has turned away 90% of potential users.
So, do you understand?
Solid-state batteries are not prepared for ordinary people in the short term.
It is a carnival in the capital market, a moat for high-end brands, and a perfect reason for automakers to sell their cars to more than 500,000 yuan with confidence.
This is like real estate. The developer promotes every day that we have built a billion-dollar mansion, with a swimming pool leading to the living room and a helicopter parking on the balcony.
Does it have anything to do with you, a user who needs a subway, who has a small amount of money?
No, the meaning of its existence is to tell you that our brand is awesome and expensive.
For car companies and battery manufacturers, this logic is simply a perfect closed loop.
On the one hand, using the concept of "solid-state battery" to draw a big pie in the capital market, the stock price has risen sharply, and the financing has been sluggish. This is called quick planting and quick harvesting.
On the other hand, we will first launch a few "technical verification" models with outrageous prices and sell them to those geeks and wealthy people who are not short of money, so that they can be the first batch of guinea pigs and harvest a wave of brand reputation.
After three to five years, the cost gradually dropped and the technology matured, and then gradually delegated to mainstream models.
This gameplay has been tried and tested in the technology circle.
So, back to the original question, have these tens of millions of new energy vehicle owners really become "leeks" abandoned by the times?
If you want me to say, there is no need to be so anxious.
Comparing your car to a physical examination report, the current liquid lithium battery car may not be top-notch in all indicators, and it has some minor problems, but it has a sound function, can run or jump, and it will be no big problem for another seven or eight years.
The solid battery is the legendary perfect physical examination report of an 18-year-old athlete. All the indicators are out of reach, making people drool.
But the problem is that this report is not only expensive, but it is just a PPT now.
You can’t think it’s shameful to pass the exam just because the top student in the next class got the full mark.
The iteration of technology has never been a one-size-fits-all revolution, but a long infiltration and coexistence.
Just like the mobile phone screen changing from LCD to OLED, it did not cause all LCD phones to die overnight.
The National VI B fuel truck has come out, and the National V car running on the road is also alive?
Essentially, whether your car will be eliminated depends on one thing: whether it can still meet your core needs.
Your car is out of date.
Your money was wasted.
You have become a great sin.
Is this really the case?
Guess what capital thinks.
Capital wants you to feel that you are outdated, so that you will pay for another one.
Behind this is a carefully planned "cognitive business war". It is not about whose fist is harder, but who knows how to grasp the rhythm more. When the opponent (that is, your wallet) is breathing, give him a consumerist punch.
As long as your car is easy to charge and has enough battery life, the smart cockpit has not been stuck in PPT, it is a qualified tool.
You have enjoyed the benefits of low car cost and driving experience brought by new energy, which is enough.
As for the starry sea of solid-state batteries, let those rich and leisure big brothers explore first.
We ordinary people don’t need to make ourselves mentally scattered every day for a technique that has not yet been selected.
To put it bluntly, what you are not buying is a technology stock that needs to chase high prices at any time, but you are buying a means of transportation to shelter you from the wind and rain.
At the tool level, as long as it is not broken, there is no such thing as "outdated".
Those who yell at "back thorns" and "leeks" every day either don't understand this truth, or they just want to change cars and find a reason for themselves.
So, friends, relax.
The wave of solid-state batteries is indeed coming, but it will take at least three or five years to hit your feet.
Before this, drive your car with peace of mind and don’t be driven by those marketing tactics.
After all, in this era when "blind accumulation of thin air" can be blown into a business miracle, maintaining a little sober and concentration is more important than anything else.
If it really doesn't work, just think, didn't the first batch of users who bought iPhone 4 have endured the signal problems and application crashes for several years?
Someone has to bear the price of technological progress.
This time, let others take it first.
Just be down-to-earth and be the one who applauds behind you. It's great.
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