India has gained a lot of attention recently. Not only has it announced that its GDP surpassed Japan to become the fourth in the world, it also said it would become a developed country in 2047. As soon as the news came out, there were cheers in China, and many international analysts were discussing the reliability of this matter. But if you think about it carefully, it's really a bit complicated - whether it's due to strength or a number game, we have to make arguing.
Let’s talk about the fact that GDP surpasses Japan. India’s total volume has indeed soared, and now it has reached 4 trillion US dollars. However, some media pointed out that this data may be a bit "playful". For example, using the estimated data for the 2024-2025 fiscal year to compare the actual data in Japan in 2023, the result will naturally look beautiful. But according to the latest estimate in 2024, Japan's GDP is actually 4.23 trillion US dollars, while India is still hundreds of billions away.
It's like comparing next year's lottery prediction with neighbors' passbook last year. It sounds quite amazing, but it's actually a bit fake.
Let’s look at the per capita data, which directly exposes the glossy skin of the “fourth place”. The per capita
India has gained a lot of attention recently. Not only has it announced that its GDP surpassed Japan to become the fourth in the world, it also said it would become a developed country in 2047. As soon as the news came out, there were cheers in China, and many international analysts were discussing the reliability of this matter. But if you think about it carefully, it's really a bit complicated - whether it's due to strength or a number game, we have to make arguing.
Let’s talk about the fact that GDP surpasses Japan. India’s total volume has indeed soared, and now it has reached 4 trillion US dollars. However, some media pointed out that this data may be a bit "playful". For example, using the estimated data for the 2024-2025 fiscal year to compare the actual data in Japan in 2023, the result will naturally look beautiful. But according to the latest estimate in 2024, Japan's GDP is actually 4.23 trillion US dollars, while India is still hundreds of billions away.
It's like comparing next year's lottery prediction with neighbors' passbook last year. It sounds quite amazing, but it's actually a bit fake.
Let’s look at the per capita data, which directly exposes the glossy skin of the “fourth place”. The per capita income in India is less than US$3,000, while Japan is US$34,000, and Germany is far ahead of India. This strong contrast makes India's economic "rise" more like a halo on the head, but mud under its feet.
The gap between the rich and the poor is also very shaky. A report bluntly stated that 1% of the rich have control over 40% of the wealth, while the lower-class people, who account for half of the population, cannot even make up 7% of the total assets.
This huge reality makes India's "Dream of a Great Power" look a bit magical. On one hand, there are elites who are talking about listing in the science and technology park, and on the other hand, there are ordinary people who are busy spending three meals a day in the slums. This polarization scene inevitably makes people question the quality of India's economic development.
However, India is not without its highlights. The demographic dividend is an advantage. Young people account for more than half of the 1.4 billion people, with more than 10 million new labor force each year, and the market vitality is also very strong. Consumption upgrades are also a highlight. Smartphones are selling well, and international brands in shopping malls are lined up outside the door.
Infrastructure construction is also accelerating, subway and high-speed rail projects are one after another. Although the "high-speed rail dream" is always delayed, at least the first step has been taken.
Let’s talk about manufacturing, this is the area that the Modi government focuses on developing. Although it has made a bold statement that the proportion of manufacturing in GDP will be increased from 15% to 25%, the actual situation is not very optimistic. The mobile phone industry is a typical example. India has indeed become one of the important mobile phone production bases in the world, but most of them are "assembled" rather than "manufacturing".
Workers work hard to assemble a mobile phone, and the factory's net profit is less than US$3. How can this be called "Made in India"? Not to mention the hard bones of the electronics industry chain and the new energy field, India has not yet chewed it.
The business environment has also dragged on. Slow land approval, insufficient infrastructure support, and frequent changes in labor regulations have made business operations difficult. Even giants like Apple have to go through many twists and turns if they want to move their supply chain to India on a large scale.
In general, although India's economic growth is impressive, there are many internal problems. Although the high-profile propaganda of the Modi government has boosted national confidence, the ultimate goal of development is to enable ordinary people to live a better life. GDP ranking is a sight on the numbers, and the real sight makes everyone feel the improvement of life.
At present, the Indian government is still promoting the matter of surpassing Japan. The International Monetary Fund also endorsed India's economic growth rate, saying that it has a growth rate of more than 6%, making it one of the fastest growing large economies in the world. However, many international institutions and experts have raised questions about the quality of India's development.
Even some entrepreneurs in India have called for not only focusing on the total GDP, but also paying more attention to the per capita data and the improvement of labor productivity.
Indian netizens are more optimistic about these doubts. They generally believe that under Modi's leadership, India's potential will be fully released, and becoming a developed country by 2047 is just around the corner. However, there are still many concerns internationally about the current situation of India's manufacturing industry and the bottlenecks in infrastructure. In the future, it remains to be seen whether India can achieve true development based on digital growth.
This matter looks lively, but it is interesting to think about it, especially the two points of India's per capita income and the gap between the rich and the poor, which makes people really hard to be optimistic. The ranking on the numbers can certainly make people feel shining on their faces, but if most people can’t live a good life, then what’s the point of this ranking?
Manufacturing is also a big problem. It is easy to shout slogans, but difficult to do practical things. To become a developed country, it is obviously not enough to rely on assembly lines alone. True core technologies and complete industrial chains are the key. In addition, with so many problems in the business environment, India's dream of a great power must first solve these basic problems.
Next, let’s take a look at what netizens think about this matter.
This is a little bit wrong. The GDP ranking has improved, but the per capita data has dropped. The gap between the rich and the poor is also terrifyingly large, and it is inevitable that people will doubt how long can such a "fourth in the world" last? We are calling for the goals of developed countries, but the manufacturing industry is still moving around in the same place, lacking technology and foundation. How far can this road go?
After all, no matter how beautiful the digital game is, the life of ordinary people is the real indicator. The total GDP is important, but if the lives of most people cannot be improved, what is the significance of this ranking?
India’s “Dream of a Great Power” looks beautiful, but isn’t the reality a bit skinny? With such low per capita income and such a large gap between the rich and the poor, can such economic growth really be called success? Although progress in numbers is exciting, is it possible that these numbers are just superficial prosperity but cover up the actual problems?
What do you think?
