India: Is GDP third in the world in three years? How long can the economic miracle that 1.4 billion people "massed" last?
What is the impression India gives you when you watch short videos?
Is it the "clean and hygienic" open-air kitchen by the Ganges River, or the lower-class people who can't afford even bottled water in the slums?
But such a country labeled as "dirty and messy" recently announced: "GDP surpasses Germany in three years, and it will be third in the world!"
This is not the Indians who drink Ganges water and talk nonsense.
The latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that India's nominal GDP has reached US$4.19 trillion in 2024, surpassing Japan (4.18 trillion) with a slight advantage, becoming the world's fourth largest economy.
What’s even more exaggerated is that the Indian government’s think tank expert Subramaniam directly spoke: “In 2.5 to 3 years, Germany will also give way!”
GDP that "wins with lie down"? Japanese yen depreciates and sends India to top
India can surpass Japan this time, which is somewhat suspicious of "picking up bargains".
Since 2023, the yen has depreciated wildly, and the exchange rate has fallen to 162 yen for one dollar, h
India: Is GDP third in the world in three years? How long can the economic miracle that 1.4 billion people "massed" last?
What is the impression India gives you when you watch short videos?
Is it the "clean and hygienic" open-air kitchen by the Ganges River, or the lower-class people who can't afford even bottled water in the slums?
But such a country labeled as "dirty and messy" recently announced: "GDP surpasses Germany in three years, and it will be third in the world!"
This is not the Indians who drink Ganges water and talk nonsense.
The latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that India's nominal GDP has reached US$4.19 trillion in 2024, surpassing Japan (4.18 trillion) with a slight advantage, becoming the world's fourth largest economy.
What’s even more exaggerated is that the Indian government’s think tank expert Subramaniam directly spoke: “In 2.5 to 3 years, Germany will also give way!”
GDP that "wins with lie down"? Japanese yen depreciates and sends India to top
India can surpass Japan this time, which is somewhat suspicious of "picking up bargains".
Since 2023, the yen has depreciated wildly, and the exchange rate has fallen to 162 yen for one dollar, hitting a 34-year low.
The Indian rupee depreciates slightly due to strict capital controls.
The result is: Japan's GDP was converted into US dollars and it directly "shrinked"; India was almost unaffected, so it barely narrowly won by a gap of US$10 billion.
Some netizens joked: "Japan is being 'sneaked' by the exchange rate! When the yen rises back, India is afraid that it will delete the news overnight?" However, the IMF report also pointed out that even if the exchange rate factor is excluded, the gap between India's total economic output and Japan is indeed narrowing - after all, Japan is seriously aging, and GDP has been growing at a low rate of 1% all year round, while India's growth rate has stabilized at more than 6% in recent years, and even reached 9%.
The "human sea tactic" of 1.4 billion people: How high can GDP be accumulated?
India's confidence in "overcoming Germany in three years" comes from two "trump card moves": "there are many young people" and "fast growth rate".
The demographic dividend has reached the largest level: India's average age is 28 years old, and the labor force accounts for more than 65% of the 1.5 billion people, while Germany's average age is 47 years old, and the population is still growing negatively every year.
"There are so many young people in Germany who are short of people who are begging grandma to sue her. There are so many young people on the streets of India that they can form a 'human-shaped GDP assembly line'."
Economic growth rate crushes developed countries: Germany's GDP growth in 2023 is expected to barely return to positive in 2024; India seems to have an accelerator, with an average annual growth rate of 6%+ from 2021 to 2024.
At this pace, India's GDP will approach $5 trillion in three years, while Germany may still be on the 4.7 trillion yuan.
But the question is: "Is the high GDP equivalent to the people having money?"
The per capita GDP is only US$3,500, which is 1/15 of that of Germany and 1/25 of that of the United States.
"It is equivalent to 1.4 billion people working together, but their salary is all in their pocket by their boss Modi."
The gap between the rich and the poor is called a "hell model": the unit price of luxury houses in Mumbai is comparable to that of New York, but there are still 230 million people nationwide who earn less than $2 per day.
“The poor drinking dirty water by the Ganges River and the private jets of Bollywood stars are all part of the ‘Miracle of India’.”
Can "Made in India" really replace China? Get the toilet first!
Indian media often boast about "replacing China as the world's factory", but the reality is very skinny:
The infrastructure level is comparable to "blind box drawing": the total length of highways in the country is less than 1/10 of that in China, and power outages are commonplace.
"Foxconn went to India to build a factory and had to bring its own diesel generator and anti-cow dung roadblocks."
The illiteracy rate is 25%+, high-end industries cannot be played: Apple CEO Cook cited India's "huge potential", but the iPhone India's yield rate is only 50% (98% in China).
"The third brother assembling a mobile phone is more appropriate than disinfecting the Ganges water."
Netizens quarreled: Is India's economy "really awesome" or "bragging"?
> "Tropical Region": India's GDP exceeds Japan? Let’s sweep the cow dung all over the street first!
> "Data Maniac": Based on purchasing power parity, India has long been the third place. Why are you so sorry?
> "Human Sober": Per capita GDP is not as good as Vietnam. What's the use of blowing the total amount?
1.4 billion people share 5 trillion yuan, and each person buys more bottles of Ganges mineral water?
Conclusion:
The Indian economy is like an "overloaded tuk-tuk car" - GDP numbers are soaring rapidly, but the poor people in the car are almost falling off the wheels.
"When the demographic dividend becomes 'population pressure', Modi's 'world third' dream may have to pass the 'toilet revolution' first."
The last soul asked: Do you think India can really surpass Germany in three years?
(Golden sentence forwarding version: "Can the magician of GDP make 1.4 billion people go from "Ganish River Life" to "curry freedom"?")
