Passenger Car Association: The auto market bottomed out in March, with retail sales expected to be 1.03 million vehicles

Editor’s note: This article comes from 36Kr’s “Future Auto Daily” (WeChat public account ID: auto-time), author: Qin Zhangyong. Author | Editor Qin Zhangyong | Li Huanhuan Halfway through March, China’s auto market began to show signs of recovery. On March 17, the Passenger Car Association issued a document stating that manufacturers' sales targets in March fell by 38% year-on-year. The 2019 survey sample volume accounted for approximately 81% of the overall market. Based on preliminary estimates of this proportion, narrow passenger car retail sales in March were approximately It was 1.03 million units, down about 40% year-on-year and rising sharply month-on-month. Source of retail sales in a narrow sense in March: Passenger car association sales are usually positively correlated with the comprehensive resumption rate. According to data from the China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive resumption rate of dealers in early March was about 50%, and it is expected that the comprehensive resumption rate will reach more than 70% by the end of the month. As the sales pace recovers, the Passenger Car Association expects the year-on-year growth rate in the fourth week to be around -30%. In addition, the market's month-on-month loss/recovery rate in the months before and after the Spring Festival in previous years is about 40%. From this, the overall market sales in March will exceed million reached 1.03 million vehicles. The decline in sales in the first quarter has been confirmed. After suffering a cliff-like decline in February, the auto market ushered in a weak recovery in March. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, as of March 11, the overall resumption rate of 23 automobile enterprise groups (whose combined annual sales accounted for more than 96%) was 90.1%, and the employee return rate was 77%. Specific to car companies, as of March 11, among the 23 vehicle companies surveyed and counted, 18 including Changan, Chery, Geely, JAC, Brilliance, and Sinotruk have all resumed production. While the auto market bottomed out in March, the overall recovery speed remains to be seen. Affected by the epidemic, in the first week of March, domestic production fell by 78% year-on-year, which is even less optimistic compared with the retail situation. At the same time, dealers had an inventory of about 3 million vehicles at the end of February, and dealers faced huge pressure to replenish their inventories in March. The government's policies to promote consumption will only be implemented in the second quarter. The Passenger Car Association stated that it will be difficult for consumers' confidence in car purchases to return to normal in March. Therefore, the car market in March is still at a historically low level and is expected to gradually pick up after April to May. Compared with the retail market of 5.09 million vehicles in the first quarter of last year, this year's sales decline is estimated to be around 2.1 million vehicles. Sales in the first quarter of 2020 are expected to be approximately 2.99 million vehicles. However, compared with developed countries, China's car ownership still has potential and room for growth. The Passenger Car Association believes that with the joint promotion of effective policies and the market, the car market can regain its vitality. At present, many local governments have introduced policies to stimulate automobile consumption, including comprehensive subsidies, relaxing purchase restrictions, and bringing automobiles to the countryside. Yuan Chengyin, general manager of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Center, predicts that once purchase restrictions are truly relaxed in cities, it may lead to an increase in new car sales of 1 million units.