Joint venture car companies are “surviving the crisis”: The automobile market has been experiencing negative growth for 16 consecutive months

Source: Economic Observer Network Original title: Those joint-venture car companies that are "surviving the crisis" are "drifting" in the middle. Editor's note: When the negative growth of the automobile market has appeared for 16 consecutive months, even the most optimistic People also began to be cautious. More than a year of negative growth has changed the ecology and pattern of China's auto market, and has truly brought China's auto industry into the "Jungle Era." Nowadays, hidden dangers that have long been ignored in the era of rapid growth have begun to explode in large numbers, and enterprises are making adjustments as never before. This is a moment that tests the comprehensive strength of an enterprise, and there is no chance of evasion. When the sales of a large number of companies have plummeted, and more than 30 companies have even sold less than 1,000 in three quarters, it is difficult to think of any turnaround other than brutal elimination that awaits them. The tide recedes, revealing the naked swimmers. In the automotive industry, the contrast between strengths and weaknesses has emerged. The leading companies are still stable, while the tail companies have run out of funds and are about to go bankrupt. Pseudo-powerful joint venture brands are also collapsing, even plummeting. But the so-called "leading company" also has a new meaning, rather than referring to scale. With steady and long-term development, enterprises began to rethink the meaning of these four words and find new development models. Where is the new trend, and how to become a trend-setter instead of being disillusioned? In such an era of naked swimming, should excellent companies take the initiative rather than be conservative and austere? These questions come one after another. It is difficult for us to predict the continuation period of such a major turning stage, but there is no doubt that the Chinese automobile market will not remain sluggish, but will enter an era of moderate growth. After experiencing this test, China's automobile market will enter a real era of concentration, and leading companies that can represent China's automobiles will take advantage of the trend. If the adjustment proceeds according to the rhythm, we predict that this process will be completed in the next 5-10 years. This time will also be the time when China's automobile competitiveness explodes. Liu Xiaolin/Text If we still observed its trends in the past two years, then in 2019, "Why Japan cannot take the lead in electric vehicles" has begun to become one of the official topics in the automotive field. The reason is mixed. Most believe that Japanese car companies do not lack technological accumulation, but they are indeed not outstanding. At the same time, domestic consumers are not very enthusiastic about using electric vehicles, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for Japanese cars in electric vehicles, and in hybrid vehicles. , hydrogen fuel and other new energy vehicles. When it comes to China, the swings and entanglements of Japanese cars are even more obvious. Although Toyota, Nissan, and Honda have all invested in the "new four modernizations", compared with several leading German companies and leading independent brand companies, Its status as a follower who fluctuates with the waves is even more prominent. The same is true for Japan's neighbor South Korea. Starting last year, Hyundai Motor finally took action and began to promote its hydrogen fuel technology, which is well known in China and North America, to China. However, for Beijing Hyundai's declining performance, the unpredictable civilianization time of hydrogen fuel technology is still embarrassing. How to gain an advantage in the current technological competition is still a bottleneck that Beijing Hyundai is difficult to break through. Thirty years in Hexi, thirty years in Hedong. This old saying is true in many industries, and the same is true for the automobile industry. This law is not only applicable to the rise of independent brand cars, but also to the prosperity of joint venture car companies. The joint venture car companies that once dominated the Chinese auto market are not just the Volkswagen series. SAIC-GM, FAW Toyota, Changan Ford, and Beijing Hyundai. The gap between one million vehicles and one million vehicles is getting shorter and shorter. Most of them have become the main "contributors" to the decline of China's auto market. Not all of these joint venture car companies are in troubled areas. The "white T-shirt" effect of Japanese car companies in the car market is still continuing, but no one can judge how long it will last, and the wait-and-see mentality of Japanese cars in the future of the new four modernizations has not dissipated; It is not that these joint venture car companies have launched new strategies and are not unaware of the urgency of transformation. However, their strategies are similar, and the intensity of capital investment and top-down corporate reforms is difficult for outsiders to perceive. Between consciousness and action, between decision-making and ability, there is always a little bit that is not decisive and powerful enough. This also makes these joint venture car companies unknowingly begin to become a group drifting with the new wave after the tide of dividends in the Chinese auto market recedes. This group is large enough, and on the other hand, with the implementation and subsequent investment of the future strategies of these joint venture car companies from 2020 to 2025, it is unknown whether some of them will attack the trend and become leaders. Misalignment and Waiting and Seeing In many things, the misalignment between facts and perceptions was only realized through the changes in Hedong and Hexi in the past thirty years. In addition to Germany, which has a strong engineering culture, Japan, South Korea, and the United States are also the birthplaces of many classic car brands. But in the face of the automobile industry and technological revolution, the survival and combat capabilities of these brands began to diverge. A year ago, the Volkswagen Group completely reshuffled its brand camp and stewardship structure for the purpose of the new four modernizations. Daimler Group also recently announced the completion of its split and the launch of a new corporate structure composed of three independent subsidiaries. This high-profile attitude and measures for change were immediately implemented in the Chinese market, and had a clear positive impact on the brands of joint venture car companies. In contrast, although other multinational car companies are also conducting research and innovation on new travel technologies and methods, their pace and coordination with China's market policies seem to be misaligned. General Motors of the United States is also a new company with a very vigilant and introspective consciousness. Although it was once an "elephant" car company that was slow to turn around like Toyota, it has absorbed the lessons of bankruptcy and reorganization very thoroughly. However, the experience of bankruptcy and reorganization has indeed greatly reduced GM's financial position. With the highest purpose of ensuring the interests of shareholders, cost-saving and efficiency improvement, profit and cash flow have always been Mary Barra's top priority. This strategy is also clearly Feedback to China has been reflected in the significant reduction in the daily travel and various expense budgets of GM China staff. On the other hand, in order to compete with Tesla, General Motors began to invest heavily in autonomous driving research and development institutions in Silicon Valley a few years ago. However, the benefits of this research and development have so far been mainly reflected in the joint venture luxury car brand Cadillac. In China, GM is far from being able to challenge Tesla in terms of innovation. During the past ten years or so in China, the market has been struggling to make money. The shortcomings in brand building of the three major GM sub-brands have caused the current predicament and become the main reason why GM is unable to climb onto the new wave. GM chose to reshape its brand by introducing more global models, but with its focus on new technologies, the three-cylinder engine successfully grabbed the headlines of the auto market debate, which somewhat left SAIC-GM somewhat helpless. The same is true for Changan Ford, which is also an American brand. Although it has intensively launched a number of new products including SUVs after 40 months of no new cars, it seems that Changan Ford is still nostalgic for the past trend and has not caught on. The new carrier positioning and demand changes of Chinese young consumers for cars. After a short-term recovery in September, Changan Ford once again fell into a 31.8% year-on-year decline in October, with cumulative sales in the first ten months falling 56.1% over the same period. Compared with the poor performance of American cars, although Japanese cars with strict system capabilities have not been at the forefront of the new wave, they have gained a lot from the ebb of the Chinese auto market. However, in terms of the application of new technologies, its investment intensity and competitive advantages are still among the followers. At present, the Japanese leader Toyota still has difficulty giving up the main path of plug-in hybrids, with the Corolla Ralink Double Engine e+ as the representative model. After all, this is its special advantage. The ia5 and ix4 electric vehicles owned by GAC Toyota are replacement models derived from GAC Trumpchi. Although Dongfeng Nissan introduced Nissan's world-famous pure electric vehicle Leaf early, whether it was transformed into the Venucia Morning Wind or attached its soul to the Sylphy pure electric vehicle, they all encountered the "orange grows in Huaibei and becomes orange" without exception. "The helpless situation. With the support of a huge user base, Korean cars are much luckier than the "naked" French cars, but their weak brand value support is obviously difficult to help them quickly reset during the major adjustment period of the domestic automobile industry. It can be seen that in the last wave of the wave, these joint venture car companies relied on cost-effectiveness and price competition to succeed in the huge economy and mid-level car market. After the tide recedes, some joint venture car companies' main energy is still chasing the remaining products of the previous wave. temperature, others began to test new high-efficiency fuel power systems, or strengthen the application of hybrid technology. Obviously, compared with the decisive turnaround of German and independent brands, the transition characteristics of these joint venture car companies are obvious. Shift in focus No matter from which angle you look at it, it is a phenomenon worth pondering that these joint ventures have become drifters and followers of the new wave. Looking around the world, Japan and South Korea have dominated the field of power battery technology for many years, while the United States leads the high point of information technology and is unparalleled in autonomous driving. But whether active or passive, the outside world feels that waiting and watching and following are the common status quo of this camp. However, this mentality and positioning are also changing. Entering 2019, these followers began to gradually see the direction of the trend and accelerated their investment and layout in new technologies in China. In order to make up for the previous "mistake" of only focusing on sales and not paying attention to the dissemination of technological strength in China, Hyundai is accelerating the dissemination of its hydrogen fuel cell development and utilization results and high-end brands. At the second China International Import Expo (China International Import Expo) on November 5, Hyundai's NEPTUNE concept truck and fuel cell system for power generation, rail, and ships came to China for the first time. At the same time, Genesis, a subsidiary of Hyundai, also appeared as an independent exhibitor. Beijing Hyundai revealed in the middle of this year that it will restart the imported car business that has been suspended for three years, and Genesis will also enter China through a newly developed independent high-end channel. . Toyota is also considered a representative of "having it all figured out." On November 7, Toyota and BYD jointly announced that they had signed a joint venture agreement to establish a research and development company for pure electric vehicles. The new R&D company will be established in 2020 and will launch new pure electric models. This is considered to be the beginning of Toyota's realization that if it wants to develop in China, electric vehicles are an unavoidable stage on the road from hybrid to hydrogen fuel cells. Just as Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and Peugeot Citroën (PSA) announced their merger to form the world's fourth largest automobile group in early November, Toyota finally put aside its position and chose to embrace the local giant in the field of electric vehicles that it was not good at. Two months ago, Toyota had reached a "deepening strategic cooperation framework agreement" with its two joint venture partners in China, China FAW and Guangzhou Automobile Group, focusing on the development of electrification and intelligent connectivity. Earlier, Toyota also established a joint research institute with Tsinghua University to conduct research on hydrogen fuel cells and autonomous driving. Also in early November, SAIC-GM released the Chevrolet brand's first pure electric intercity coupe, the Cruise. Two months ago, GM announced the launch of a new generation of electronic architecture in China, which was first installed on the Cadillac CT6, which was launched in October. In terms of new technologies, Japan, the United States and South Korea can be described as "the eight immortals crossing the sea, each showing his magical powers." But whether it is Toyota, which was obsessed with gasoline-electric hybrids, GM, which is pushing three-cylinder engines and plug-in hybrids, or Hyundai, which is betting on hydrogen fuel cells, or the "new generation product group" launched to escape from "hell" In the future strategies released by Mazda one after another, the layout of the "new four modernizations" is basically the same, which is nothing more than locking the year target, formulating the quantity and scale of electric vehicles to be launched, and the phased goals of intelligent driving. At the same time, these joint venture car companies all hold high the banner of "localization" in China without exception, emphasizing the important position of "in China, for China" in the research and development of new technologies. Clearly, the new competition in this camp is still in its infancy. But a new tide has arrived, and those who understand the current affairs are heroes. Among the huge joint venture rafting teams, some companies will eventually advance into the leading camp by virtue of their differentiated advantages, and whether they can clear away the fog, join forces vertically and horizontally, and move forward at full speed with a firm direction is the primary prerequisite for victory.