The past and present of new energy vehicles, and development forecasts for the next five years

Preface: Why do new energy vehicles appear? Why do they need to be popularized and promoted quickly? Whose cake does new energy vehicles take? After the answer to this question is combined, all the questions that denigrate new energy vehicles can be accurately answered. These three questions are divided into three chapters. Answers, the last section is car buying advice. Chapter 1: The Past Life of New Energy Vehicles - Review of History New energy vehicles specifically refer to two categories: electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. In the future, only pure electric vehicles will remain. During the transition period, plug-in hybrids will be the main ones, and the transition period is expected to be from 2020 to 2025. Many people believe that electric vehicles only appeared around 2010, because at this stage, both independent brands and joint venture brands began to launch electric vehicles one after another. However, the real new energy vehicles appeared a century ago. The people who invented or promoted the popularization of electric vehicles were two figures who influenced the world and may be familiar to them. Thomas Alva Edison (inventor and entrepreneur) and Henry Ford (founder of Ford Motor Company) made the popularization of electric cars possible. Edison’s nickel-iron battery was the mainstream chemical power source for electric cars. Ford’s The Model T became an ideal platform for transforming electric vehicles. However, before this car was launched, electric vehicles had become mainstream; the reason why they became the first choice of car consumers in the first stage is that electric motors rely on current to convert electromagnetic fields to form kinetic energy, and the entire conversion process is almost static operation; while early cars The vibration and noise of the internal combustion engine or external combustion engine used are very huge, and the NVH experience is ridiculously bad, even worse than that of a horse-drawn carriage. What cars need is an ideal user experience, especially in the early stages when cars were positioned as luxury goods. Then comparing the quasi-static operation of the electric motor with the poor state of the internal combustion engine or the external combustion engine, it is obvious that the electric motor is more suitable to meet the needs of early users. In other words, the first stage of the popularity of electric vehicles is because of the good user experience, but why are electric vehicles again What about the "hundred-year break"? There are two reasons for this: First point: Referring to the development stage of the above-mentioned EV-T model, oil mining technology has also been rapidly upgraded during the same period. A large amount of oil "gushing out" always requires vehicles to consume it. As a result, there was a conflict over which one should be promoted, electric vehicles or fuel vehicles. This is the same as today, but there was no accurate answer in the early days because it was not yet known how much petroleum energy storage would be available. In theory, the choice between electric and fuel vehicles should be decided by the consumer market, but unfair competition has led to obstacles in the development of electric vehicles. Taking the Model T as an example, all the core technical data in the research and development stage were burned. , technology disruption began to appear at this stage, and then the global "make-up" made electric vehicles withdraw from the stage of history. Second point: two world wars. The war has lasted for more than half a century. What is needed on the battlefield is a vehicle that can quickly replenish fuel, ensure vehicle flexibility and mobility, and have no worries about cruising range; electric vehicles did not have mature battery technology in the early days, and the internal resistance of nickel-iron batteries High energy density and low energy density cannot meet battlefield needs, and there is no mature extended-range diesel-electric technology. The supply and demand relationship in the automobile market is no longer that of the civilian car market. The demand for war is the main technological development direction of almost the global automobile industry. Therefore, fuel-powered vehicles became the mainstream at this stage, and they also became the mainstream of the civilian automobile market after the war. , because most of the first batch of engineers dedicated to the research and development of electric vehicle technology are no longer around. Chapter 2: The present era of electric cars - the significance of popularization Section 1: To sum up, electric cars were a hit a hundred years ago, and then experienced a "hundred years of loneliness". However, a century later, electric vehicles have once again become a topic of global concern. The two major car brands that have attracted global attention are Tesla and BYD (this article does not discuss the two major technologies, only the history and future). So what attracted the attention of the world? What about eyeballs? If the answer to this question is answered superficially, it seems that it should be cool design and super performance, which are the main characteristics of the above two major brand products; however, after communicating with the strategic planners of the above-mentioned independent brand car companies, we got The real answer is that 20 years ago, the core level of the company predicted the upcoming energy crisis, and it was necessary to prepare for technological transformation in advance. Since World War I, fuel-powered vehicles have become the global mainstream. After more than a hundred years of global economic development, automobile consumption has become the norm. Currently, the number of global automobiles has steadily exceeded 1 billion units, and the number of automobiles in China alone has exceeded 240 million. (The total number of motor vehicles exceeds 300 million). These cars (globally) consume an average of more than 5.7 billion tons of oil a year, but proven oil reserves worldwide are less than 200 billion tons. This is a very simple math problem. Oil reserves are insufficient for consumption in 35 years. The huge domestic car ownership has caused nearly 70% of oil consumption to rely on imports. Faced with the uncontrollable price of imported oil and the eventual soaring of oil prices in the future due to scarcity, owners of fuel-powered vehicles will no longer Can you still afford a car? The average fuel consumption of the fuel-powered MPV used by me is 15L/100km. There is no pressure at the moment, but I can’t predict what will happen in the future. Key point: All means of transportation by sea, land and air are the basis for economic development and the stable operation of the global order. If these commuting or transportation methods do not get rid of the shackles of oil, they will inevitably cause a surge in transportation costs. Transportation costs will be passed on to the transported goods and goods. in the cost of commuting. By then, most people will be unable to afford this high cost, and it will also cause chaos in the global order. Therefore, how to get rid of oil and find alternative energy sources is a global topic. After long-term technological research and development demonstrations, the conclusions reached are very consistent, which is to use new energy sources to generate electricity. Explanation of terms: The Association for Science and Technology-Popular Science China has made an explanation about new energy. Its concept is electric energy obtained by using non-fossil fuels (petroleum, natural gas, coal), such as solar energy (photovoltaic), wind energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, etc. Nuclear energy and other methods are converted into electrical energy into new energy. At least four major categories of these energy sources, wind, solar, hydropower, are resources that can be obtained infinitely from nature. In this way, electric energy can be continuously obtained. If mainstream transportation is transformed to use electricity, energy will no longer be a crisis. This is why electric vehicles need to be popularized. In short, it is to prevent energy crises and at the same time ensure the normal operation of society, so that people who denounce electric vehicles today can live a stable life in the future. Section 2: Reduce emissions and breathe fresh air. A fuel-powered vehicle will produce about 2.5 kilograms of emissions when consuming 1 liter of gasoline. Among them, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons (hydrocarbons) and free particulate matter are the most damaging to air quality. Although the proportion of these substances is not high, But the main component (about 2.3 kilograms) of carbon dioxide is the culprit of the greenhouse effect. The same unit of diesel emissions will be higher, and particulate matter is the main component. Therefore, vehicle exhaust emissions have become one of the important influences that damage urban air quality. How to reduce emissions is a top priority. The only way to reduce emissions is to prevent cars from continuing to emit emissions at the terminal. Changing vehicles from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles is an ideal way to simplify configuration. At present, the proportion of new energy power generation exceeds 30%, and the existing electric vehicles of more than 4 million units consume less than one-tenth, so electric vehicles are theoretically very environmentally friendly. Don’t worry about the increase in electric vehicles in the future. Even if thermal power is used, it will be cleaner. Because the desulfurization, denitrification and dust removal steam turbines equipped in thermal power stations have a structure that controls emissions far better than cars. Even thermal power stations are cleaner than fuel-powered vehicles. This can be regarded as a countdown node for fuel vehicles. As for the possible pollution of power batteries, there is no need to go into details. The nickel, cobalt, manganese, aluminum, phosphorus, iron, lithium and other metals used in mainstream ternary lithium batteries are transition metals, and most of their electrolyte components do not have serious pollution; metal components It can be recycled and remanufactured at a 95% rate, and the electrolyte is partially processed by biodegradation technology. And before processing and after the batteries are phased out in electric vehicles, most of these batteries will be sorted and entered into photovoltaic or wind power energy storage power stations for use as energy storage batteries. The service life is between 34 and 50 years. These batteries will quickly Promote the growth of clean new energy power generation. Therefore, the batteries of electric vehicles have huge value and are not discarded at will as ordinary people understand. Instead, the official traceability platform codes each battery at different stages and conducts strict management. Chapter 3: Whose cake does electric cars take and car buying advice? There are no obvious shortcomings in theory of electric cars. If most people can analyze the macroscopic comprehensive energy structure, transportation costs and price structure, then this kind of car will inevitably There will be a supportive attitude. However, traditional fuel-powered car companies that do not have the technology to develop and produce new energy vehicles, as well as the sales terminals of such companies, will obviously reject electric vehicles and create sentiments that will make more people reject electric vehicles. In fact, consumers do not need to have this mentality, because it is their own freedom to choose which vehicle to choose, and a person should not be influenced by others. It is currently recommended that plug-in hybrids be the first choice for new energy vehicles, because the pure electric mode of this type of vehicle can travel between 50 and 100 kilometers. One charge a day can satisfy most people's daily commuting with pure electricity, and the cost of using the vehicle will increase. It’s as low as electric cars (0.05~0.1 yuan per kilometer); long-distance driving can use the HEV fuel-electric hybrid mode to get unlimited battery life. Of course, the premise is to refuel. The point is that there will still be low fuel consumption in the hybrid mode, so this New energy vehicles without range anxiety are the first choice. Electric vehicles are recommended as the second or third option for family cars, because it cannot be denied that the cruising range of pure electric vehicles is still a bit short, and the popularity of charging stations is not high. Therefore, this kind of car is more suitable for replacing battery cars as a daily short-distance commuting car. To put it bluntly, it is suitable for consumers who do not need long-distance driving range. In the short term, electric vehicles are only suitable for this positioning. However, between 2020 and 2025, the positioning will change due to the market competition opened up by more than ten well-known global car companies to discontinue the production of fuel vehicles and transform into new energy fields; because of fierce competition It will lower the price structure of new energy vehicles and will inevitably promote the growth of cruising range. Summary: In the next five years, electric vehicles will usher in explosive growth, which is an unstoppable global trend.Editor: Tianhe Auto-Automotive Science Island Editor: Tianhe MCN Welcome to forward and leave messages for discussion